Price Movements - On August 8, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 2.22% to 787.80 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.24% to 3458.20 USD/oz[1] - The T+D gold spot price rose by 2.10% to 783.27 CNY/g, and London gold spot price increased by 1.07% to 3398.58 USD/oz[1] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) improved by 3.90 USD/oz to -9.35 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 1.31 CNY/g to -1.57 CNY/g[7] Market Influences - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was heightened due to weak economic indicators, including a decline in the ISM services PMI and an increase in unemployment claims[1][19] - President Trump's announcement that gold would not be subject to import tariffs helped stabilize the market after initial volatility caused by tariff concerns[2] Trading Volume and Positions - The global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons to 959.64 tons, while the cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose by 4.05% to 167,436 kg[13] - The net long positions in gold futures increased significantly as institutional investors reduced their short positions[13] Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported at 50.1, below expectations, indicating economic stagnation[19] - The unemployment claims reached their highest level since the end of 2021, reflecting increasing economic risks[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action due to softening labor market data[30][32] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, with some officials suggesting that the Fed may need to act more than twice this year[30]
黄金周报：美国9月降息预期抬升，上周金价显著上涨-20250812
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-08-12 06:53