天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡偏强，合成橡胶震荡偏强-20250812

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250812: Natural Rubber Fluctuates Strongly, Synthetic Rubber Fluctuates Strongly [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased precipitation in producing areas affecting the tapping process, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate strongly as the prices of upstream raw materials rise. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Natural Rubber - On August 11, 2025, the closing price was 15,755, up 205 from the previous day; the trading volume was 415,983 lots, an increase of 141,976 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 188,179 lots, an increase of 5,213 lots; the registered warrant volume was 175,440, down 840; the basis was -1,055, down 30; and there were various changes in regional price differences and monthly spreads [1] Synthetic Rubber - On August 8, 2025, the closing price was 11,785, up 270 from the previous day; the trading volume was 138,315 lots, an increase of 96,945 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 28,088 lots, an increase of 2,463 lots; the registered warrant volume was 10,470, up 160; the basis was -218.33, down 70; and there were also changes in regional price differences and monthly spreads [1] Supply Side - In the future, there will be precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Thailand issuing a heavy rain warning. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Hainan, Yunnan, Guangxi, etc. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 64.71%, down 4.62% from the previous week, and that of styrene-butadiene rubber was 79.32%, up 0.58%. As of August 11, the daily after-tax profit margins of different synthetic rubber production processes showed different trends, and the start-up rates of synthetic rubber-related product devices were relatively stable [1] Inventory - As of August 8, 2026, the weekly total warrant inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 210,330 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 413,500 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons; and the bonded area inventory was 87,700 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,666 tons, a decrease of 272 tons [1] Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and major domestic and foreign producing areas are fully tapping. As of August 11, 2025, the glue purchase price in Songkhla, Thailand remained unchanged from the previous day, while the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in Hainan increased by 250 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, due to the maintenance of butadiene plants in Shandong and South China and the delay of new capacity in the Northeast, the butadiene price rose slightly. As of August 11, the daily average price of butadiene (99.5%) in China was 9,447.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. As of August 6, the weekly port inventory of butadiene in China was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons [1] Demand Side - As of August 7, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all-steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.18% from the previous week, and that of semi-steel tires in China was 74.53%, down 0.1%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.598 million vehicles, a decrease of 11,500 vehicles from the previous month; the sales of passenger cars were 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,600 vehicles; and the sales of trucks were 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles. The auto market has entered the traditional off-season. From January - July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [1]