First Shanghai Securities·2025-08-12 07:11Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 60.00, representing a potential upside of 23.20% from the current price of HKD 48.70 [3][5]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in downstream demand, which is driving a steady improvement in the company's fundamentals [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 25.0% and a net profit CAGR of 90.0% over the next three years, supported by increasing demand from downstream clients and the urgency for domestic semiconductor alternatives [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 6,321.56 million, a decrease of 13.09% from the previous year, but projected to grow to USD 8,029.92 million in 2024, reflecting a 27.02% increase [4][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was USD 902.53 million, down 50.35% from 2022, with forecasts indicating a recovery to USD 851.73 million in 2025 and USD 1,277.34 million in 2026 [4][5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was USD 0.11, with projections of USD 0.16 in 2025 and USD 0.22 in 2026, indicating a significant recovery trajectory [5][7]. Market Position and Outlook - The company ranks as the third-largest wafer foundry globally, with a market share of 6% as of Q1 2025, and is expected to benefit from advancements in process technology and increased production capacity [5][7]. - The company anticipates a 5%-7% revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a projected revenue range of USD 23.2 billion to USD 23.6 billion, aligning with market expectations [5][7]. - The demand for AI-related products is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, contributing to an increase in wafer shipments despite a slight decline in prices [5][7].