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中国心连心化肥(01866):业绩超预期,产能扩张夯实基础

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 9.0, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, with a revenue of RMB 12.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit of RMB 600 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13% [2][4]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to the weakening support for urea prices due to falling coal prices, leading to a 19% drop in urea prices and a 15.9% decrease in urea revenue [2][3]. - Significant new production capacity is set to come online, which is expected to drive rapid growth in revenue and profits in 2026 and 2027 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2, the company reported revenue of RMB 6.82 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.7%, and a net profit of RMB 400 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 102.5% [1][2]. - The company anticipates explosive growth in net profit for 2026 and 2027, with projections of RMB 1.15 billion and RMB 2.49 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +43.8% and +51.1% [4][10]. Capacity Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its capacity expansion projects, with significant projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2027, including urea projects in Henan and Xinjiang [3][4]. - Once all projects are completed, the company’s urea production capacity is expected to exceed 8 million tons, and total fertilizer capacity is projected to reach 14 million tons [3]. Marketing Strategy - The company is upgrading its branding strategy to better meet market demands, transitioning from a product-focused approach to providing comprehensive planting solutions [3].