光大期货金融期货日报-20250812

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The recent rise in the stock market comes from three logics: long - term, the market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards the consumption - promotion area and domestic inflation to rise after the Sino - US relationship eases, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend is high, and infrastructure investment on the demand side increases, which benefits upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, capital market liquidity is relatively abundant, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation under the weak US dollar and improved enterprise deposit and loan data, leading to more entity liquidity flowing into the stock market. The market is currently divided, and investors can adjust their positions after the policy and market trends become clearer [1] - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, but in the short term, after the "anti - involution" policy expectations have basically ended, and with weak credit data expectations in July, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index Futures: On August 11, 2025, the A - share market rose with heavy volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.99% with a trading volume of 1.85 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices had different increases. The育儿 subsidy system has been officially implemented nationwide. The market expects the central bank to buy national bonds to raise funds for the central government and introduce more inclusive fiscal support plans. The market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can wait for clearer trends [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: On August 11, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased. The bond market is under pressure from the strong stock market but may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: From August 8 to 11, 2025, IH rose 0.14%, IF rose 0.53%, IC rose 1.15%, and IM rose 1.73% [3] - Stock Indices: From August 8 to 11, 2025, the SSE 50 rose 0.03%, the SSE 300 rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 rose 1.08%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.55% [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: From August 8 to 11, 2025, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.10%, T fell 0.13%, and TL fell 0.60% [3] Market News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)", clarifying the scope of export goods, cross - border sales of services and intangible assets, and the applicable rules for multiple tax rates and levy rates [4] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts and related stock indices [6][7][10] - Treasury Bond Futures: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18] - Exchange Rates: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]