光大期货能化商品日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [2] - Asphalt: Volatile [2] - Polyester: Volatile [2] - PX: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [4] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefins: Volatile [6] - PVC: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil: On Monday, oil prices stopped falling. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. The market is waiting for the meeting between Trump and Putin, which may ease sanctions on Russian oil. However, there is still uncertainty in the market, and oil prices need to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - Fuel oil: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell on Monday. Supply is sufficient, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in summer is weakening. The upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic [2]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract fell on Monday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves. The asphalt market in August is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a range [2]. - Polyester: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures rose on Monday. The supply of PTA and EG is recovering, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the spot prices of PTA and EG will fluctuate in the short term [2][4]. - PX: The supply and demand of PX continue to recover, and the PXN is slightly strong. PX prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [4]. - Rubber: The prices of rubber futures rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, demand expectations are improving, and inventories are stable. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [4]. - Methanol: The load of Iranian methanol plants has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly, suppressing near - month prices. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the downward space is limited. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure and fluctuate narrowly [6]. - Polyolefins: The检修 season is coming to an end, and supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, demand is expected to increase. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - PVC: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and inventories are expected to decline slowly. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and the market's short - selling power may recover. PVC prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude oil: WTI September contract closed up $0.08 to $63.96/barrel, a 0.13% increase; Brent October contract closed up $0.04 to $66.63/barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2509 closed at 494 yuan/barrel, up 1.5 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. OPEC+ July production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia cutting 300,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day. Russia increased production by 70,000 barrels per day but was still below the quota [1]. - Fuel oil: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 1.39% to 2,760 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.92% to 3,463 yuan/ton. Supply is sufficient, and the spot premium of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a four - month low [2]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract (BU2509) fell 0.51% to 3,512 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves [2]. - Polyester: TA509 closed up 0.47% at 4,706 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.68% at 4,414 yuan/ton; the main PX contract (509) closed up 0.77% at 6,778 yuan/ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu have declined [2]. - PX: Supply and demand continue to recover, and prices are expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations [4]. - Rubber: The main rubber contracts (RU2601, NR, BR) rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. - Methanol: The spot price in Taicang is 2,382 yuan/ton. Iranian plant load has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly [6]. - Polyolefins: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 is 7,020 - 7,150 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase [6]. - PVC: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China has little change. Supply remains high, and demand is gradually picking up [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If no peace agreement is reached, sanctions on Moscow may be tightened [10]. - OPEC+ July crude oil production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day, and non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report provides the historical price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [12][14][16][18][20][21][22]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report provides the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The report provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [57][62][63][65]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report provides the historical production profit charts of various energy and chemical products [66][67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy and chemicals, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research [72]. - Du Bingqin: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - Di Yilin: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [74]. - Peng Haibo: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [75].