Orient Securities·2025-08-12 07:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The exit of overseas bulk chemicals is expected to accelerate the growth of China's fine chemicals [6][21] - China's petrochemical capacity has rapidly increased since 2018, surpassing the US in refining capacity in 2023, leading to a stronger competitive position compared to Europe and Northeast Asia [15][6] - The reduction in imports of phenol and the expansion of downstream products like PC and epoxy resins in China have significantly decreased overseas demand for phenol, creating opportunities for domestic fine chemical companies [15][6] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Overseas Bulk Chemical Exit - The exit of European bulk chemical capacity is driven by the rapid enhancement of China's chemical industry competitiveness [10] - China's share in bulk chemicals has been increasing, with significant capital expenditure leading to output growth [10][18] - The exit of marginal capacity in Europe and Japan is expected to accelerate supply-demand balance restoration in the industry [23][24] 2. Opportunities for Domestic Fine Chemicals - China's technological breakthroughs and industry chain expansion are forcing European upstream bulk chemicals to exit [25] - The trend of European chemical industry exit is unlikely to reverse, providing growth opportunities for China's fine chemical enterprises [25][39] - The exit of bulk chemicals will lead to supply issues in fine chemical products, prompting demand for stable suppliers from China [39][44] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leader in specialty polyether with a total capacity of approximately 225,000 tons and new projects adding 330,000 tons [47] - Changqing Technology (603125, Not Rated): A leader in specialty monomers with a projected capacity increase from 35,000 tons to 90,500 tons by the end of 2024 [47] - Lianlong (300596, Buy): A leader in polymer materials with a focus on anti-aging agents and lubricant additives [47]