铁矿周报2025、8、6：需求走弱趋势为当前关键因素-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply has weakened again and demand has declined slightly, but downstream profits remain good. Before the downward trend in demand is established, iron ore may continue to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend [5]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [6]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has increased slightly; the premiums of mainstream medium and low-grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has increased [8]. Summary by Directory Supply - Reuters: On August 4, 2025, the 7-day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 3,881 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Australia was 2,243 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Brazil was 943.1 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.96% [31]. - Steel Union: Global shipments decreased slightly last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports increased by 266.5 thousand tons [58][97]. - Domestic ore: The total output of domestic ore continued to increase [103]. Demand - Steel mills: The profitability rate of steel mills continued to increase, and the molten iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,200 tons [107]. - Port clearance: The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports last week was 302,710 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,440 tons [118]. - Transactions: The spot trading volume of iron ore declined from a high level, and the trading volume of forward contracts increased significantly [123]. - Consumption: The weekly output of the five major steel products was stable, the profits of finished products weakened, the demand for rebar decreased slightly, and the consumption of hot-rolled coils increased [128]. Inventory - Ports: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 1.4 million tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.35%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period [144]. - Steel mills: The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 1.269 million tons, the inventory in factories decreased by 460,000 tons, and the inventory in sea - floating and ports increased by 1.73 million tons. The available days of imported ore remained at 21 days [153]. Price - Spot: The spot trading volume of iron ore decreased, and the trading volume of forward contracts continued to increase. The basis rate of the 09 contract was about 0.6%, with a small change in the basis, close to parity, and a relatively low basis rate [9]. - Futures: The prices of futures and spot increased slightly, the basis was weak, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was volatile and strong [158]. - Premium: The premiums of mainstream medium and low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores increased [166]. - Sea - floating cost: The cost of mainstream powders decreased [172]. - Import profit: The import profits of mainstream varieties were volatile and strong [175]. - August MA index average: The average value of the MA index in July was 100, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 791 [7]. Balance Sheet - According to the recent iron ore shipment and arrival situation, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered [180].