Great Wall Securities·2025-08-12 08:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the electric power equipment and new energy sector [3]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing demand front-loading, with supply-side reforms needing close observation. The report emphasizes that significant demand growth is essential for market expansion, but limited absorption capacity and mismatched demand in overseas markets complicate the situation. Policy intervention is deemed crucial for the industry's recovery [1][13]. - In the energy storage segment, demand remains robust, but market dynamics are shifting. The report expresses optimism about large-scale storage despite concerns that it may follow the path of photovoltaics. The focus is on high-quality products and integrated service solutions, with expectations for profit margins to stabilize around 20-25% [2][7]. - The lithium battery sector faces challenges due to weak pricing power in the materials segment, driven by supply-demand imbalances. The report notes that the industry's effective capacity utilization is projected to hover around 60-65%, with leading battery manufacturers exerting significant influence over pricing and production cycles [6][12]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - Demand has been front-loaded, leading to a significant increase in installations, with 212.21 GW added in the first half of 2025, a 107.1% year-on-year increase. However, the market saw a sharp decline in June, indicating potential overcapacity and absorption issues [13][16]. - The report highlights the need for supply-side reforms and policy support to stabilize the industry, as the current market dynamics are characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand [1][19]. Energy Storage - The report indicates a positive outlook for large-scale energy storage, with expectations for profit margins to stabilize at 20-25%. The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on high-quality integrated solutions [2][7]. - The report also notes that the distributed energy storage market is entering a new phase, with competition intensifying and previous easy profits becoming harder to achieve [5][12]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a lack of pricing power in the materials segment, with effective capacity utilization projected at 60-65%. The report suggests that leading manufacturers are likely to dominate pricing and production cycles, impacting smaller players [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the need for material suppliers to adapt through cost reduction and technological advancements to remain competitive in a challenging market [6][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the electric new energy sector is in a phase of "repeated games," with expectations for growth and recovery being tempered by market realities. The priority for sector recovery is seen as energy storage, followed by power batteries and photovoltaics [7][8]. - Selected companies such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in management, cost, and technology [8].