碳酸锂周报：“反内卷”下，枧下窝停产助推价格-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term operation strategy: Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. The expected price range for lithium carbonate is between 70,000 and 100,000. Due to the shutdown of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. However, in the long run, other raw materials will fill the lithium mica gap, and the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly increase of 11.37%. The trading volume decreased to 2.77 million lots (- 630,000), and the open interest increased to 320,700 lots (+ 104,600). The basis was at a discount of 5,060 yuan/ton [5][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%, and lithium mica production was 16,100 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [13][17] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [21] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,556 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In July, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [27][29] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [37] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [40] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 15,745 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. In June, the import and export volumes increased [46] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the export volume decreased [49] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [50] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, the production of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [57] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, the production of power batteries was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. In July, the installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [60] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.268 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The sales volume was 1.329 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, the production of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [68] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 108.27 million, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 31.59 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [71] 3.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore rebounded. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 22 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 90 yuan/ton [74] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 959 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 2,271 tons, and the inventory of others decreased by 620 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 926 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 60 tons [82][83] 3.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. The expected price range is 70,000 - 100,000. Considering the supply, demand, cost, and inventory factors, due to the shutdown of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. After the price increase, other raw materials will fill the lithium mica gap, and the long - term fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment [87]