白糖周报：进口放量中-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Outlook: Short - term outlook is bearish. In the first half of July, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil exceeded expectations, putting pressure on raw sugar. The profit margin for out - of - quota imports in China has been opened, and the arrival of imported sugar accelerated from July to August, pushing the reverse spread to the expected level. Attention should be paid to the positive spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets. The market is in a bottom - seeking process in the medium term [3]. - Foreign Production: The outlook for foreign production is bearish. The production of the 2025/2026 sugar season in Brazil is basically set at 41 million tons; the production in India in the 2024/2025 season was lower than expected, but there is an expected increase to 35 million tons in the 2025/2026 season; Thailand maintains a slight increase in production [3]. - Domestic Production and Sales: The domestic production and sales situation is bullish. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar production in China was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 8.9 million tons [3]. - Import Profit: The import profit situation is bearish. The profit margin for out - of - quota imports has been opened, and imports have increased since May. The imports are expected to peak in August and decline in September [3]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory situation is neutral - bullish. The national industrial inventory in June was 2.26 million tons, at a low level compared to the same period [3]. - Ethanol - Gasoline Ratio: The ethanol - gasoline ratio situation is neutral - bullish. The ethanol - gasoline ratio has slightly risen to 0.6768, with ethanol having a slight advantage and approaching the equilibrium point [3]. - Raw - Refined Sugar Spread: The raw - refined sugar spread is neutral. The raw - refined sugar spread is at $113 per ton, indicating normal demand for raw sugar [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Brazil Sugar Production Data - July First - half Data: In the first half of July, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.411 million tons or 14.77%; the sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 446,000 tons or 15.07%. The cumulative crushing volume was 256.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.217 million tons or 9.61%; the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.591 million tons or 9.22% [11]. - Production Forecast: IBGE forecasts that Brazil's sugarcane planting area in 2025 will be 9.1685 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% decrease from 2024; the production is estimated to be 693 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 1.9% decrease from 2024. StoneX predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/2026 sugar season will be reduced to 40.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the May prediction [16]. Brazil Ethanol Production - In the 2025/2026 sugar season as of the first half of July, the ethanol production was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 51 million liters or 2.36%. The cumulative ethanol production was 11.62 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.587 billion liters or 12.02%. The historically low ethanol production ratio and low inventory will continue to drive the convergence of the ethanol - to - sugar price and the sugar price, and the room for further reduction of the ethanol production ratio is very limited [19]. Brazil Sugar Export - As of the week ending July 30, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.5178 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 177,800 tons or 5%. Brazil entered the high - export window, and the sugar export volume in July 2024 was 3.7823 million tons [30]. Domestic Sugar Market - Price Trend: Although the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, the domestic spot price has been supported by the inventory structure and has only fluctuated in a narrow range in the first half of the year, but it has loosened under the impact of imported sugar. The domestic spot price has slightly declined, but the basis remains strong [49][65]. - Import Situation: The out - of - quota import window has been opened since late April, and the arrival of imported sugar has increased since May. It is expected that the domestic imports will reach 750,000 - 800,000 tons in July and slow down in August. The large - scale import of sugar may drive the implementation of the positive spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets [57]. - Market Spread: The 9 - 1 spread has shifted to a reverse spread as expected with the increase in imported sugar, and the spread is expected to be near the end. In the future, attention should be paid to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets. From a unilateral perspective, the valuation range of raw sugar is clearer. The current price reflects the global high - yield expectation, suppressing the raw sugar price in the short term [65].