化工日报：周末长丝产销放量，关注检修情况-20250812

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral, with attention on the cost side of crude oil and macro - sentiment changes [4] 2) Core Viewpoints - Cost - end: Attention should be paid to the US - Russia leaders' meeting on August 15th, Trump's stance on sanctions against Russia, and the attitude towards extending tariffs on China on August 12th. In the medium - term, as global refineries reach the peak of annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift between strength and weakness. With new supplies from Latin America and the North Sea entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - PX: The PXN was $261/ton (a month - on - month change of - $8.50/ton). China's PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX is still in a low - inventory state. There is support at the lower end of PXN, but the floating price of PX has recently shown signs of weakness [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 12 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 6 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 7 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 372 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving, the inventory pressure of filament has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. However, major suppliers are actively selling, which suppresses prices. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the circulating supply is abundant with the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). Driven by the anti - involution sentiment in late July, terminal weaving concentrated on raw material replenishment, and the weaving and texturing loads rebounded. But the demand has not improved substantially, and it is just a transfer of inventory. The industry is still facing poor orders and inventory build - up. The weaving load decreased again this week, waiting for the improvement of seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August. The polyester load remains strong in the short term, with a slight increase this week. For different products, the pressure on cotton - type short - fiber factories is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low - melting - point products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. After the phased destocking of filament inventory, the short - term production reduction pressure is relieved, and the load may even be increased. For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a possible increase in late August or September [2] - PF: The spot production profit is 78 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 36 yuan/ton). Due to the high inventory of yarn mills and limited improvement in downstream orders, market confidence is still lacking, and the processing margin remains in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - PR: The spot processing fee for bottle chips is 407 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 25 yuan/ton). It is reported that the main polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to maintain production reduction or shutdown in August, with no plans to increase or restart production for the time being. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover as the production reduction and shutdown are extended [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates, and filament profits [51][53][62] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type short - fiber load, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][90][94]