Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 08:44Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the sugar industry dated August 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 306,587 lots, down 571 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 17,853, down 387; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -37,611 lots, down 1,429 lots [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4398 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4474 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5584 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5683 yuan/ton [2] - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5815 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Nanning is 5960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6010 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons [2] - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2] - The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 million tons, up 234,700 tons [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1457 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1381 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 271 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 172 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.32%, down 4.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.32%, down 4.3 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.74%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.86%, down 0.68 percentage points [2] Group 3: Industry News - Brazilian foreign trade secretariat export data shows that Brazil exported 1,094,070.33 tons of sugar in the first week of August, with a daily average export volume of 182,345.05 tons, a 2% increase compared to the daily average export volume of the entire August last year [2] - On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed up 1.66%. On Tuesday, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.61% [2] - Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of sugar cane in the 2025/26 season, and there are some buying orders from the CFTC report, leading to a short - term rebound in raw sugar prices [2] Group 4: Core View - Domestically, the profit outside the quota remains at a relatively high level, and the import expectation for the near - term is increasing. Beet sugar will start to be crushed in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply [2] - On the demand side, due to the hot summer weather, it is the peak season for cold drink demand, but due to weak prices, purchases are made on a need - to - buy basis, and demand is average [2] - In terms of inventory, the previous production and sales progress was good, and the current inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process [2] - For new crops, according to the sugar supply and demand report released by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.2 million tons, a slight increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years [2] - Overall, the foreign market price has rebounded, and the domestic sugar 2601 contract has followed suit, closing up 0.61%. However, the pressure of increasing import expectations remains, and the spot price is weak. The far - month contracts correspond to the new crushing season supply, and it is expected that the future prices will still be under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short, while paying attention to risk control [2]