氧化铝周报：情绪控制下的市场&行情-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Guinea's rainy season supports ore prices and alumina costs, but the oversupply in the fundamentals suppresses prices. Without a new round of strong policy stimulus, it is difficult for prices to break upward. Short - term sentiment - driven funds may support the futures price. In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core range of near - month contracts at 3050 - 3300 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Directory Spot - National spot prices are supported by futures and have stabilized. As of Monday this week, the average price of three networks in Shanxi was 3257 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 3238 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the average price of three networks in Guizhou increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3323 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions remained unchanged week - on - week [14]. - As of last Friday, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. After considering the small exchange - rate fluctuations, the cost of importing Western Australian alumina to northern ports in China was equivalent to 3356 yuan/ton [14]. - As of last Friday, the import profit and loss of alumina was - 103.05 yuan/ton. The Nanshan Bintan project in Indonesia started production in July, increasing overseas supply pressure. Alumina is expected to remain in a net - export state, but the volume has shrunk significantly [3][14]. Futures - Last week, the futures price of the main alumina contract first rose and then fell. The main alumina contract opened at 3162 yuan/ton last Monday and closed at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly change of - 1.92% and a volatility of 0.75%. The highest point during the week was 3253 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3130 yuan/ton [18]. - The futures market is shifting from structure C to structure B, and the far - month contract has formed a C - type structure [18]. Cost - In terms of costs, they are basically the same as last week, with the fully - taxed costs in various regions currently running at around 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [25]. - As of last Friday, the average CIF price of imported Guinea ore was 73.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the average CIF price of imported Australian ore was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also unchanged week - on - week. The rainy season in Guinea supports the CAPE - type shipping fee at around 23 US dollars/ton, making it difficult for ore prices to fall in the short term [25]. - In the caustic soda market, the supply of caustic soda has increased, but the price of 50% caustic soda has rebounded, driving the 32% caustic soda price to stabilize temporarily. The caustic soda price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25]. Supply - As of last Friday, the weekly alumina output was 1.851 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.22%. The operating capacity of alumina was 95.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons or 0.63%. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a record high, exceeding 95 million tons for the first time. Coupled with a sharp decrease in net exports, the weekly surplus has been rising [3][32]. - There is a new production - capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has room to reach a new historical peak [32]. Inventory - Alumina has been accumulating inventory since the end of May and has fallen within the historical range for two consecutive weeks. As of last Friday, the total alumina inventory (the sum of on - site, in - transit, raw - material, and port inventories) according to the Steel Union's statistics was 4.144 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.062 million tons, with the inventory - accumulation rate being the highest in the past month [3][37]. - Special attention should be paid to the on - site inventory of alumina plants. It was previously predicted that the tightness of the spot market was easing, and there was an upward trend in the on - site inventory of alumina plants. Although the current on - site inventory is still at a historical low, the loosening of spot prices indicates that the tightness of the spot market is still easing [37]. - According to both the Steel Union and ALD data, the raw - material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has been decreasing continuously, indicating that the tightness of downstream demand has eased [37]. - However, in the current market, the bearish fundamental data should be viewed dialectically. Neither the increasing inventory - accumulation rate nor the continuously record - high operating capacity can be the sole basis for judging the market. In the short term, capital movements are the main factor [37].