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美联储官员放鸽,关税乌龙扰动逐步出清
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-12 08:43
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House is expected to announce the nominee this fall. Fed Governor Bowman believes the Fed should cut interest rates, and she expects rate cuts in the remaining three FOMC meetings this year, which strengthens the easing expectation for precious metals. The short-term trading logic of precious metals remains focused on easing. The market should follow up on US economic data such as CPI [1]. - Trump posted that there will be no tariff on gold, causing a significant correction in New York gold. However, the market had already priced in the clarification of the gold tariff by the White House. The short-term trading logic of precious metals remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 787.02 yuan/gram and closed at 779.48 yuan/gram, down 1.06% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 777.98 yuan/gram, down 0.19% from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On August 11, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,260.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,210.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.73% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 386,995 lots, and the open interest was 358,701 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,158 yuan/kilogram, down 0.56% from the afternoon closing price [2]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 11, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.27%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.51%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3.3 Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 753 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 669 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 356,605 lots, up 38.66% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,808 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,082 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 591,294 lots, up 35.36% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF on the previous day was 964.22 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,058.6 tons, an increase of 67.80 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.5 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 11, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.79 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -682.38 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.63, up 0.14% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of the overseas market was 88.72, up 0.86% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.6 Fundamentals - On August 11, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 40,398 kilograms, up 4.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 317,646 kilograms, up 37.79% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 13,790 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 12,000 kilograms [7]. 3.7 Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Fed Governor Bowman's dovish signal on the interest rate cut rhythm this year, combined with the Fed Chair selection led by the Trump administration, is expected to bind the Fed's monetary policy with the Trump administration's economic policy. The market is expected to actively trade the start of the US easing cycle. The short-term trading logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the gold price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 770 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [8][9]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The trading logic of silver is generally the same as that of gold, with the future easing expectation as the main line on the macro level, and its pricing weight is generally higher than the supply and demand fundamentals of silver. The market continues to trade the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift, which catalyzes the silver price in the short term. The silver price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 9,050 yuan/kilogram and 9,450 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9].