Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 08:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to see a slight increase in both supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weakening demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. Option market sentiment is bullish, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile way [2]. - The cast aluminum market is likely in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Light - position volatile trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,735 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the alumina futures main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spread for Shanghai Aluminum is 50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; for alumina, it is - 41 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - Inventory and Positions: Shanghai Aluminum main contract positions decreased by 4,524 hands to 210,986 hands; alumina main contract positions decreased by 18,724 hands to 96,168 hands. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons to 475,850 tons; alumina total inventory increased by 38,284 tons to 85,472 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 600 yuan to 110 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 55 yuan to - 105 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Supply and Demand: Alumina production increased by 26.13 tons to 774.93 tons, and demand decreased by 23.83 tons to 696.19 tons. The supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 tons to 27.14 tons [2]. - Trade: Alumina imports increased by 3.38 tons to 10.13 tons, and exports decreased by 4 tons to 17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: Electrolytic aluminum total capacity increased by 2.5 tons to 4,523.2 tons, and the开工 rate increased by 0.10% to 97.78%. Aluminum product production increased by 11.17 tons to 587.37 tons [2]. - Trade: Unwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports increased by 5.2 tons to 54.2 tons; aluminum alloy exports increased by 0.16 tons to 2.58 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: Automobile production increased by 16.66 million to 280.86 million; aluminum alloy production increased by 2.4 tons to 166.9 tons [2]. - Index: The National Real Estate Prosperity Index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 7.79%; the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 8.68% [2]. - Ratio: The purchase - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options increased by 0.0403 to 1.19 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House may announce the candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by October, consumers will bear 67% of the tariff cost, and enterprises' share will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle production and sales up 26.3% and 27.4% respectively, and new energy vehicle exports up 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues [2].