Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 08:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - On August 12, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1313.0, up 6.97%. The macro - expectation is warming up with the upcoming news conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations". Fundamentally, the overall inventory at the mine end is decreasing, and the clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a strong bias [2]. - On August 12, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1812.0, up 4.50%. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented on the spot side. The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days since August 12, 2025 has greatly improved market sentiment. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded. The current pig iron output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons. The inventory at the coal mine end is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is shifting downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a strong bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1313.00 yuan/ton, up 57.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1812.00 yuan/ton, up 131.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 977539.00 lots, up 35457.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume: 54421.00 lots, up 1344.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 82976.00 lots, unchanged; net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: - 6504.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 150.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 800.00 sheets, up 700.00 sheets; coke warehouse receipts: 800.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No.5 raw coal: 986.00 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 145.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: - 147.00 yuan/ton, down 131.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 7.00 yuan/ton, down 57.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output (monthly): 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume (monthly): 3560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 188.30 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 987.92 million tons, down 4.81 million tons; coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 69.73 million tons, down 3.89 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 national steel mills (weekly): 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; coke inventory of 247 national sample steel mills (weekly): 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly): 10.91 days, down 0.26 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal import volume (monthly): 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume (monthly): 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 74.03%, up 0.34% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; coke output (monthly): 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills (weekly): 83.77%, up 0.29%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.07%, down 0.15% [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. Industry News - The National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau will hold a special press conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" at 10:00 am on August 13 [2]. - As of now, 10 national intelligent demonstration coal mines have been built in Shanxi Province, and a total of 289 intelligent coal mines have been built [2]. - Recently, the "Several Policy Measures for Henan Province to Support Enterprises in Reducing Costs and Increasing Efficiency" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the ultra - low emission transformation of the steel industry [2]. - Goldman Sachs: As of June, US enterprises bear 64% of the tariff cost, consumers bear 22%, and foreign exporters bear 14%. By October, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the cost [2].