Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 09:13Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly. This has further repaired smelters' profits, increasing their production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. Currently, import losses are expanding, and the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, and downstream buyers are purchasing on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and spot premiums are falling. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up domestic zinc prices. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,808 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 211,490 lots, down 2,088 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 9,902 lots, up 823 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 15,768 tons, up 274 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 80,425 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 3.58 US dollars/ton, down 3.35 US dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, it is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production in the current month is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7. Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [3].