Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 09:13Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests going long with a light position, with a reference range of 267,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. The macro - situation shows that in July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production, sales, and exports also had significant growth. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the smelting side, production in July increased due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season, and the US plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors. High prices have suppressed downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, and holders are reluctant to sell. The spot premium remains at 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory is stable. Technically, increasing positions and rising prices indicate a warming bullish atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the M10 support level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 270,200 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai Tin is - 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 33,715 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,525 lots, up 2,247 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 129 lots, down 117 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,750 tons, up 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,805 tons, up 134 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warehouse receipts are 7,397 tons, up 71 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 270,600 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 270,820 yuan/ton, up 2,960 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 400 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 47.99 US dollars/ton, up 22.01 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 175,800 yuan/ton, up 2,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%, and exports were 225,000 vehicles, a 1.2 - fold year - on - year increase [3]