瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract continued to rise with increasing positions. The US July CPI data to be released at 20:30 on Tuesday was highly anticipated. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, port inventories increased, and molten iron production continued to decline slightly. Overall, supply - side disturbances supported the rise of steel prices. Molten iron production remained above 2.4 million tons, and the January contract was at a discount to the spot, which supported the iron ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising, and the red bar was expanding. The operation strategy was to be bullish on the range, while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 807.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan; the open interest of the I main contract was 230,026 lots, down 41,863 lots. The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 6.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 4,794 lots, up 457 lots. The warehouse receipts of the I DCE were 3,200.00 lots, down 200.00 lots. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 104.6 dollars/ton, up 1.10 dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 836 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 720 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.90 dollars/ton, up 1.40 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.30, down 0.01. The estimated import cost was 845 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,046.70 million tons, down 15.10 million tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,571.60 million tons, down 50.80 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,267.27 million tons, up 45.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,013.34 million tons, up 1.25 million tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18.00 days, down 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.84 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.96%, down 0.36%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.60 million tons, down 1.40 million tons. The BDI index was 2,038.00, down 13.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.95 dollars/ton, up 0.59 dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.58 dollars/ton, up 0.21 dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.18%, up 0.52%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.01%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.93%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 20.57%, down 0.13% [2] 3.6 Industry News - Brazil's shipments were 867.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 115.8 million tons. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments were 3,046.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 million tons. The total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2,530.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 million tons. Australia's shipments were 1,662.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.7 million tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1,447.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.6 million tons. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,571.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.8 million tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,381.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,203.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.1 million tons [2]