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农林牧渔行业报告(2025.8.4-2025.8.10):猪价创年内新低
China Post Securities·2025-08-12 09:17

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][38] Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the agricultural index rising by 2.52%, outperforming the broader market indices [12] - The pig price has reached a new low for the year, with the average price at 13.54 CNY/kg as of August 11, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5][18] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support pig prices in the coming year, with significant supply pressures anticipated in the second half of 2025 [6][21] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing a price increase for chicks due to supply constraints, with chick prices rising to 3.50 CNY per chick [31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index outperformed the market, ranking 10th among 31 sectors [12] - The pig price has dropped below the breakeven point, reflecting strong supply and weak demand [18] Livestock Industry Tracking - Pigs: The average pig price is at a yearly low, with a significant supply pressure expected in the latter half of 2025 [5][18] - White Feather Chicken: Chick prices have increased due to supply shortages, with a notable decline in the number of breeding chicks updated in the first half of 2025 [31] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have continued to decline, while soybean prices have shown a slight increase [33]