豆粕期货周报-20250812

Report Overview - Research Variety: Beans - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal Futures - Researcher: Qi Jianhua Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 first declined and then rose, with short - term technical support and a slight weekly increase. However, affected by factors such as the decline of CBOT soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean meal spot supply, and limited demand, the soybean meal market price was under pressure. The average spot price in most regions of the country fell below 2,800 yuan/ton, and the rebound of the futures contract M2509 was restricted, with limited upside potential [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Market Overall Performance - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 reduced positions and increased trading volume. The price was mainly in a strong and volatile adjustment, and the weekly K - line was finally a positive line [3] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Week Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Week Closing Price | Week Settlement Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Turnover (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | m2507 | 2,820 | 2,820 | 2,781 | 2,802 | 2,802 | - 4 | 166 | 2,016 | - 166 | 0.05 | | m2508 | 2,934 | 2,966 | 2,908 | 2,957 | 2,952 | 15 | 224,458 | 93,250 | - 43,408 | 65.84 | | m2509 | 2,954 | 2,985 | 2,925 | 2,976 | 2,971 | 14 | 4,712,933 | 2,008,008 | - 115,107 | 1,390.19 | | m2511 | 2,992 | 3,023 | 2,959 | 3,013 | 3,009 | 13 | 475,180 | 657,765 | 56,886 | 142.03 | | m2512 | 3,023 | 3,046 | 3,002 | 3,037 | 3,034 | 7 | 80,196 | 123,631 | 13,228 | 24.23 | | m2601 | 3,007 | 3,024 | 2,978 | 3,015 | 3,009 | 3 | 1,220,183 | 1,114,718 | 55,939 | 365.7 | | m2603 | 2,864 | 2,883 | 2,845 | 2,875 | 2,871 | 10 | 297,454 | 375,793 | 62,855 | 85.09 | | m2605 | 2,711 | 2,722 | 2,696 | 2,704 | 2,704 | - 14 | 531,616 | 562,845 | 80,217 | 143.78 | | Sub - total for Soybean Meal | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | | Total | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | [7] 2. Influencing Factor Analysis 2.1 This Week's Important News and Event Reviews - US Soybeans: According to the USDA monthly report, the expected soybean planting area in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 83.4 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 acres. The expected ending inventory of US soybeans in July for the 2025/2026 season is 310 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15 million bushels [11][12] - Brazilian Soybeans: Brazil's ANEC stated that the expected soybean export volume in July is 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase compared to 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. The expected soybean meal export volume is 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase compared to 2.01 million tons in the same period last year. Additionally, Safras&Mercado said that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.2% year - on - year to 48.2 million hectares [12] - Domestic Situation: Mvsteel showed that in the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%, 56,300 tons lower than the forecast. It is expected that the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will increase slightly next week [12] 3. Conclusion and Outlook - Currently, the main domestic soybean meal futures contract M2509 is gradually shifting positions. In the short term, there is a lack of obvious driving factors to guide the price. Coupled with the fact that the domestic soybean meal spot supply is abundant, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 may continue the range - bound market. In the future, changes in US soybean planting weather, international trade policies, and domestic supply - demand conditions may be the key factors affecting soybean meal prices [13]