Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 09:19Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite weak domestic urea demand, the decline in urea prices has revived downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The unexpectedly high Indian urea tender price has boosted market sentiment, and some plant shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea enterprise inventory last week. Considering the limited short - term trading volume and weak domestic demand, urea enterprises may accumulate inventory again. The UR2601 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1735 - 1800 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 29 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 91863 lots, down 17911 lots; the top 20 net positions are - 24437, down 5576; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3823, up 200 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 455 and 460 US dollars/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 7 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.3 tons, down 10,000 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 88.76 tons, down 2.97 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.98%, down 1.62%; the daily urea output is 189,800 tons, down 3700 tons. The urea export volume is 7 tons, up 7 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 41.5%, up 2.82%; the melamine operating rate is 61.1%, down 2.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 98 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 344 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan. The monthly compound fertilizer output is 4.1682 million tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly melamine output is 30,300 tons, down 1200 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 88.76 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97 tons, or 3.24%. As of August 7, the port sample inventory was 48.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, or 2.03%. As of August 7, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous period, or 1.94%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% from the previous period [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]