Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 09:27Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - V2509 is fluctuating strongly, closing at 5047 yuan/ton. With new capacity coming online in August and the restart of some maintenance devices, PVC supply is expected to increase. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid demand. Although the anti - dumping policy and BIS certification delays, the rainy season still hinders overseas demand. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton, and V2601 needs to pay attention to the support around 5040 and the pressure around 5300 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of PVC futures is 5047 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the trading volume is 760,070 lots, up 25,631 lots; the open interest is 531,672 lots, down 57,649 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,080 lots, down 8012 lots [3]. - Spot Market: The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 5125 yuan/ton and 5035 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and South China are 4905.38 yuan/ton and 4935.62 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter down 13.12 yuan. The CIF prices in China and Southeast Asia are 700 and 680 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis is - 127 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. - Upstream Situation: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China, North China and Northwest China is 2650 yuan/ton, 2623.33 yuan/ton and 2409 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter up 5 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, with no change. The intermediate prices of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 521 and 548 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The intermediate prices of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 and 198 US dollars/ton respectively, down 22 and 21 US dollars [3]. - Industrial Situation: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.49%, up 2.5 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 48.08 tons, up 3.28 tons, with 42.37 tons in East China (up 2.89 tons) and 5.71 tons in South China (up 0.39 tons) [3]. - Downstream Situation: The national real - estate climate index is 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative new housing construction area is 30,364.32 square meters, up 7180.71 square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 633,321.43 square meters, up 8301.89 square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 24475.5 billion yuan, up 5320.69 billion yuan [3]. - Option Market: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 29.06%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options is 20.33%, up 2.15 percentage points [3]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities to provide interest subsidies for eligible service industry business loans [3]. - China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [3]. - On August 12, the market prices of PVCSG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou and Hangzhou increased by 0 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4860 - 4950 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 2 to August 8, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.8% to 42.85%, with the pipe operating rate down 0.87% to 32.09% and the profile operating rate down 0.09% to 36.91%. As of August 7, the social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% to 77.63 tons week - on - week and decreased by 17.52% year - on - year [3].