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瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250812

Report Overview - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated August 12, 2025, providing comprehensive data and analysis on the methanol market [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2520 in the short - term. The overall methanol production decreased slightly recently as the output from restored capacity was less than the loss from检修 and production cuts. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased significantly. After offsetting the operations of various enterprise devices, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased slightly last week but is expected to decline this week due to the expected shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2391 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 105 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 344,949 lots, down 27,812 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 101,738 lots, down 8,751 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,168, up 1080 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2370 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2102.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference was 267.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. CFR China Main Port was 269 dollars/ton (unchanged), CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton (unchanged), FOB Rotterdam was 265 euros/ton, down 5 euros, and the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference was - 64 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 2.98 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.02 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 64.2 tons (weekly), up 7 tons; in South China ports, it was 28.35 tons (weekly), up 4.71 tons. The methanol import profit was 32.79 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 293,700 tons (weekly), down 30,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 81.61%, down 3.75% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 41.62% (weekly), down 1.67%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.33% (weekly, unchanged); the acetic acid operating rate was 89.24% (weekly), down 2.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 66.62% (weekly), down 1.17%; the olefin operating rate was 83.89% (weekly), down 1.38%. The methanol - to - olefin's on - paper profit was - 848 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 24.9%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.11%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.85%, up 3.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.85%, up 3.03% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 6, the total methanol port inventory in China was 92.55 tons, up 11.71 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw inventory increases. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 29.37 tons, down 3.08 tons (a 9.50% decrease), and the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, up 1.01 tons (a 4.37% increase). As of August 7, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device's capacity utilization rate was 85.11%, up 1.5% [2]