碳酸锂日报-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 11, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 74,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 72,300 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 1,500 yuan/ton to 67,490 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 19,389 tons [2]. - CATL suspended mining operations after its mining license for the Yichun project expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, which has little impact on the company's overall operation [2]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. The social inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons this week, with upstream and other links reducing inventory and downstream replenishing inventory [2]. - Against the backdrop of anti - involution and booming demand, short - term production suspension has pushed up market sentiment, driving up prices and volatility. However, the impact of the suspended mines on production is about 10,000 tons of LCE per month, and the suspension time is not clear. As prices rise, some enterprises are resuming production, and overseas imports may also gradually increase [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Price Changes: The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices all increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons [2]. - Company News: CATL suspended mining operations in Yichun and is applying for a mining license renewal, with little impact on overall operations [2]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation: Supply increased week - on - week and is expected to rise in August. Demand for cathode materials is expected to increase in August. Social inventory increased, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking [2]. - Market Outlook: Short - term production suspension boosts prices, but the impact of suspended mines is limited, and production resumption and increased imports may occur as prices rise [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and Mineral Prices: The main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures, as well as prices of various lithium ores, all increased from August 8 to August 11 [4]. - Lithium Salt Prices: Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide prices all rose during the same period [4]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, and the prices of some precursors and cathode materials also increased [4]. - Cell and Battery Prices: Most cell and battery prices remained unchanged from August 1 to August 8 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - related ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [5][7]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [8][10][12]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between different lithium products, including battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and others [15][16]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate [20][23][26]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [29][31]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 2024 to August 2025 [33][35]. - Production Costs: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [37][38]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and the team has won multiple industry awards [41]. - Wang Heng: A non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, and has made contributions in risk management for listed companies [42]. - Zhu Xi: A non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel, and has written many in - depth reports [42].