Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 11, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 9,000 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.83%, and the position increasing by 33,258 lots to 272,000 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,540 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 90 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,985 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 6.34%, and the position increasing by 2,143 lots to 139,800 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton. [2] - Industrial silicon production in the north and south continued to resume, and the production of downstream crystalline silicon increased significantly, resulting in a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces have put forward a joint initiative against involution, and relevant news may become an important driver for guiding the industrial silicon market in the short term. After the polysilicon market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market is trading a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices showed different trends on August 11. Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, and polysilicon fluctuated higher. The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is a double - increase, and it is affected by coal - coke sentiment and industry association initiatives. The polysilicon market is affected by news such as capacity storage. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,585 yuan/ton on August 8 to 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 355 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract increased from 8,645 yuan/ton to 8,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. [4] - Industrial Silicon Spot: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions showed different degrees of increase or remained stable. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China increased from 9,100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon in Xinjiang increased from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton. [4] - Polysilicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,790 yuan/ton on August 8 to 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 2,195 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,790 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton. [4] - Polysilicon Spot: The prices of some types of polysilicon increased, such as the price of N - type granular silicon material increasing from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged. [4] - Organic Silicon Spot: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton. [4] - Inventory: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 420 to 50,760; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons; the factory inventory increased by 4,100 to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 to 444,000 tons. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,080 to 4,700; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons; the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][7][10] - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [13][14][16] - Inventory: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon. [19][22] - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main producing areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [25][27][28] 4.有色金属团队介绍 - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience, mainly responsible for precious metals and serving as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, with in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, with a focus on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy. [33][34]
光大期货工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250812
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 09:36