光大期货软商品日报（2025年8月12日）-20250812

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Cotton: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a slightly upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [1] - Sugar: Expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Cotton: Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with a high probability of a September interest rate cut and potentially three cuts this year, supporting US cotton prices. Domestically, the 09 contract's position reduction has slowed, and the position and position/warehouse receipt ratio are relatively high. The current low commercial cotton inventory (a decrease of over 600,000 tons in July) provides support for cotton prices. The 01 contract faces the pressure of expected high new - cotton yields and low opening prices, but the 2025/26 domestic cotton supply - demand pattern has no major contradictions, and the current cotton price is at a relatively low level [1] - Sugar: Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production has dropped below 150,000 tons, a record low in over 100 years. The spot sugar market has average transactions and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. On the international front, the raw sugar price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to buying support, and with low Brazilian inventories, there is less willingness for prices to hit new lows. In the domestic market, there is a lack of new drivers near the previous lows, so short - term narrow - range fluctuations are expected [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE US cotton rose 0.36% to 66.84 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.15% to 13,680 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 14,595 lots to 246,200 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Class 3128B was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [1] - For sugar, Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production was below 150,000 tons. The Guangxi sugar - making group's quote was 5,900 - 5,980 yuan per ton, with only Nanhua raising the price by 10 yuan per ton; the Yunnan sugar - making group's quote was 5,740 - 5,780 yuan per ton, unchanged; the processing sugar factory's mainstream quote was 6,000 - 6,500 yuan per ton, with most prices adjusting by 10 - 150 yuan per ton, up or down [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan, down 40 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,281 yuan, down 257 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [2] - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread was 106 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main - contract basis was 397 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning spot price was 5,960 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - On August 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,172, down 80 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 282 [3] - On August 11, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 15,089 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On August 11, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.7, down 0.1; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, up 0.3; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the sugar spot prices were 5,960 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and 5,970 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,240, down 305 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4] 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented including those showing cotton and sugar's main - contract closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17] 5. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures such as urea and soda - ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]