黑色商品日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the black commodity sector. However, it provides individual outlooks for each commodity: - Steel: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Iron ore: Expected to be volatile [1] - Coking coal: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Coke: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Manganese silicon: Expected to be volatile and slightly strong [3] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to be volatile and slightly strong [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It considers factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, price movements, and market sentiment to provide short - term outlooks for each commodity. For example, steel exports are high, which eases domestic supply pressure, while the market has expectations for anti - over - competition policies and potential production restrictions due to the approaching parade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3250 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.15%) from the previous trading day. Spot prices also increased slightly, and trading volume rebounded. National building material and hot - rolled coil inventories increased. However, high steel exports and market expectations for policies and production restrictions are likely to support the short - term upward trend of the rebar futures [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price of the main contract i2509 rose to 798 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (1%) from the previous day. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased. Iron ore demand and inventory levels also changed. Considering the market's focus on parade - related production restrictions, the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1256 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton (2.36%). Some coal mines in Shanxi are controlling production, and coke prices are rising for the sixth time, which boosts the demand for coking coal. The short - term outlook is volatile and moderately strong [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1759.5 yuan/ton, up 25.5 yuan/ton (1.47%). Rising coking coal prices have increased production costs, and coke prices are rising to transfer the cost pressure. With the approaching parade, market sentiment is positive, and the short - term outlook is volatile and moderately strong [1]. - Manganese silicon: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract closing at 6100 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. Supply is increasing, and demand is also picking up during the steel procurement season. The short - term outlook is volatile and slightly strong [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract closing at 5830 yuan/ton, up 1.15%. Cost support has increased, and demand has also shown a slight increase. The short - term outlook is volatile and slightly strong [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their环比 changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16] - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon over different time periods [19][20][22][24] - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [28][32][33][34][36][37][39] - 3.3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts present the spreads between different commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][44][46] - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: There are charts showing the rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54]