有色商品日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors include market attention on US trade negotiation results and recession concerns from US economic data. Fundamentally, there are still differences in views on the future of US copper. Excessive inventory in the US may lead to continuous weakness in US copper, causing inventory relocation risks and impacting global copper prices. The approaching "Golden September" peak season in China provides some price support, and the probability of a sharp short - term decline is low. Currently, copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the situation [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. In August, the profits in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. Alumina's复产 rhythm increases the expectation of oversupply, with callback pressure but limited deep - decline space due to short - term cost support. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia raises the expectation of US tariff increases on the two countries, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the stocking in the white - goods and automotive sectors starts in advance. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum shows signs of change, with the spot price changing from premium to discount. Aluminum prices are in a stage of "time for space" with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.39% and沪镍 rose 0.66%. LME inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE仓单 increased. The raw material prices of stainless steel showed differentiation, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks with a slightly slower de - stocking speed. The overall fundamentals changed little and remained in a volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors and US copper inventory issues impact the market. The approaching peak season in China provides support, and the price is in a balanced state [1]. - Aluminum: Different products in the aluminum industry showed different trends. There are changes in industry profits, trade cost concerns, and supply - demand signs. Aluminum alloy is in a cost - demand tug - of - war [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight price increases, changes in inventory, and stable fundamentals with a volatile trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Price changes in various copper products, inventory changes in different locations, and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and CIF提单 [3]. - Lead: Stable average price, changes in升贴水 and沪铅 spreads, and changes in lead - related prices and inventory [3]. - Aluminum: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - Nickel: Price changes in nickel products, raw materials, and stainless - steel products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - Zinc: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. - Tin: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Spot升贴水: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - 3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - 3.3.3 LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - 3.3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - 3.3.5 Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - 3.3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts show the copper concentrate index,粗铜加工费, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with rich experience and multiple awards; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [48][49].