Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic anti-involution policies lead to inflation rebound expectations, and the accumulation of total domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories slows down. However, the rebound of US consumer inflation may suppress the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, limiting the upside space for Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [5]. - Due to the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Given that Trump's administration imposed a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), and with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - US import tariffs push up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer inflation CPI and PCE in June to rise. However, due to the possible significant downward revision or far lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls from May to July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December [3]. Upstream - Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse in the underground passage of a non-productive project. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine started trial production. Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's west side resumed production in early June, but the east side's drainage may last until September. Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador copper mine phase II in Ecuador with a 150,000-ton capacity may be put into production in the second half of 2025, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates in August [3]. - The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system in the recycling base of recycled copper resources of Dianzhong Nonferrous successfully produced anode copper in early July. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity of domestic smelters for rough refining maintenance in August may decrease compared to the previous month, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of crude copper in August [3]. - Liangshan Copper's 125,000-ton cathode copper refining project may start feeding production by the end of the year. Northern Copper's Houma Beitong with an annual production of 200,000 tons of cathode copper ignited its side-blowing and top-blowing smelting systems on June 10, potentially reducing the domestic production of electrolytic copper in August [3]. Supply and Inventory - Indonesia's PT Gresik copper smelter (annual production of 300,000 tons) needed maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks in early August due to oxygen supply equipment failure. India's Adani copper smelter with a 500,000-ton capacity resumed feeding on June 16 after multiple delays but still faced the risk of cancellation of long-term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates. African agricultural exports delayed ship bookings until late August, leading to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper at Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, potentially reducing the domestic import of electrolytic copper in August [4]. - The import window closure may limit the domestic import of electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas to decrease compared to the previous week. China's social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased compared to the previous week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper at the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports increased compared to the previous week [20]. Downstream - The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for East China's power and enameled wire increased compared to the previous week, causing the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) to decline (decline) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of China's copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of China's copper enameled wire decreased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of China's copper strip increased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper strip enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper tube enterprises increased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off-season are intertwined, potentially causing the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises to decline (increase, decrease, decrease) in August [5]. Market Structure - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the calendar spreads are negative [6]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and within a reasonable range, and the calendar spreads are negative and within a reasonable range. The reason is the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm [8]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai copper to LME copper is close to the 75th percentile of the past five years, which is due to Trump's administration's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), combined with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September [9]. - The spreads between COMEX copper's near and far contracts are basically negative and within a reasonable range. The spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and within a reasonable range, which is due to Trump's administration's copper tariff policy inducing potential cross-market arbitrage transactions [11]. - The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near and far months show a Back structure, and the closing prices of COMEX copper's near and far contracts show a Contango structure [13]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for LME copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [5]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9].
有色金属周报（电解铜）：国内反内卷和美国加关税引导通胀预期，美联储未来降息预期反复或限制铜价涨幅-20250812
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-12 10:28