南华原木产业风险管理日报：老乡别走-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of log green environmental protection products has been weak recently, with funds withdrawing. There is no strong driving force currently, and the long - short situation is relatively balanced. The price mainly revolves around the delivery cost. The 09 contract price is moderately undervalued, while the 11 contract cannot be valued at present. The 09 - 11 spread showed a reverse spread today, which is hard to explain. The inventory is at a low level, and the deliverable goods for the 09 contract are not very abundant. There is some transfer and resale pressure for the 07 contract deliverable goods in Chongqing, but the quantity is limited [3]. - As of August 11, no warehouse receipts have been issued, but they will definitely come out, just a matter of time. In the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the lg2509 contract on dips and conduct a timely positive spread operation on the 09 - 11 contracts. The price has strong support around 820, and it is approaching the peak season in September [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short the lg2509 log futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and the enterprise wants to purchase according to order conditions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising log prices, it can buy the lg2509 log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Spot and Basis - On August 12, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang are provided, along with data on spot price changes, spot length - adjusted conversions,主力合约 prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and adjusted basis. The calculation formula for the adjusted basis is: Adjusted basis = Spot price after length adjustment (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [6][8][9]. Log Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Update Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiation pine import volume | 2025 - 06 - 30 | 161 | - 8 | 35.3% | Monthly | 10,000 m³ | | | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 308 | - 9 | - 7.0% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 1,926,000 | - 24,000 | 8.2% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 927,867 | - 32,133 | 2.9% | Weekly | m³ | | | Log port daily average outbound volume | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 6.42 | 0 | 35.7% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Demand | Daily average outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 3.64 | 0.07 | 61.8% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Daily average outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 2.26 | - 0.06 | 29.9% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Profit | Radiation pine import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 88 | - 1 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 89 | - 5 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | 3.9 medium (3.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 750 | 0 | - 5.1% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Main Spot | 4 medium (3.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 780 | 0 | - 3.7% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 5.9 medium (5.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 790 | 0 | - 2.5% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 6 medium (5.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 800 | 0 | - 4.8% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Outer - disk Quotation | CFR | 2025 - 08 - 15 | 116 | 0 | - 1.7% | Weekly | US dollars/JASm³ | [10] Market Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices; the import cost continues to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up; and there is an impact from funds [8]. - Likely Negative Factors: The peak season may not be prosperous, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [8].