山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the documents. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. Summary by Directory Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 1.12%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed down 0.62% [1]. - Core Logic: Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - Attributes Analysis - Risk - aversion: White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order to extend the US - China tariff truce for another 90 days. Trump also said that gold would not face tariffs [1]. - Monetary: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was significantly revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market situation, increasing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September soared from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance [1]. - Commodity: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [1]. - Data Summary: Various gold - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF data [1]. Silver - Price Anchor: The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price [5]. - Fund and Inventory Situation: In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Data Summary: Various silver - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF data [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, the US dollar index is 98.49, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.58 [8]. - Inflation Data: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.90%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.58%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.79%, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US is 4.50%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.40 [10]. - Economic Growth Data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 3.00%, the unemployment rate is 4.20%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 730,000, the labor participation rate is 62.70%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.90%, etc. [10]. - Other Data: It also includes data on the US real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, risk - aversion and commodity - related indicators [10][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectation The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided [12].