有色日报：有色维持偏强震荡-20250812

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, copper prices fluctuated slightly upwards, with open interest also rising slightly. The main contract price exceeded the 79,000 yuan mark. Favorable macro - conditions both at home and abroad are conducive to copper price increases. Despite the industry being in the off - season with a slight increase in inventory and a continuous weakening of the September - October spread, copper prices may maintain a strong performance [4]. - Aluminum: Today, Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated upwards, with open interest rising slightly. The main contract price exceeded the 20,700 yuan mark. The domestic macro - environment has warmed up, which is beneficial to aluminum prices. However, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and electrolytic aluminum inventories are continuously accumulating. With macro - level positives and industry - level negatives, aluminum prices may oscillate strongly [5]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices fluctuated, with open interest decreasing slightly. The main contract price fluctuated above 122,000 yuan. The domestic macro - environment has warmed up, which is beneficial to nickel prices. However, the port inventories of upstream nickel ore and mid - stream nickel inventories are continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate strongly in a favorable macro - environment [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - In July, according to LME data, there was a large - scale inflow of Chinese - origin copper and Indian - origin aluminum into the available inventories of LME registered warehouses, reducing the proportion of Russian - origin copper and aluminum. Chinese smelters delivered copper to LME warehouses in July to relieve the tension in the LME system caused by potential US import tariffs. Starting from August 1st, the US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - finished products and high - copper derivatives, while major products such as copper ores, concentrates, and cathode copper are not subject to the tariff [8]. - From January to June this year, in Guixi City, 6 new large - scale copper enterprises were added, bringing the total to 150. These large - scale copper enterprises completed an industrial gross output value of 145.863 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.97%, and achieved an operating income of 162.548 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.99% [8]. Aluminum - On August 12th, according to SMM statistics, the combined inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong (57,000 tons) and Wuxi (36,500 tons) was 93,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous period [9]. Nickel - On August 12th, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the main contract was SHFE Nickel 2509. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,810 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,160 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,860 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,210 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and SHFE copper month - spread [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina price trend, aluminum month - spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [25][26][28] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41]