钢材、铁矿石日报：供应扰动不断，钢矿延续强势-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.96%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The steel price was driven up by the resurgence of raw materials, but the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The steel price remained prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needed to be tracked. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price showed a strong trend with a daily increase of 1.40%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, inventory increased and the growth rate expanded. However, the real - world contradictions were limited, and the strong upward movement of raw materials provided cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.36%, the shift of the main contract was completed, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the demand for iron ore was weakening, the supply recovery was lower than expected, the fundamentals were stable, and the good profit situation of steel mills provided support for the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Automobile Industry: In July, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. Among 18 car companies that announced their July production and sales data, more than 60% had a year - on - year increase in sales [6]. - Real Estate Industry: The total sales of 18 key real estate enterprises from January to July 2025 were 842.096 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In July, the total sales were 95.316 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 41.4%. The total sales area from January to July was 42.6283 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%, and in July it was 5.4157 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.5% [7]. - Iron Ore Industry: The Sydvaranger iron ore in Norway is accelerating its restart. It is expected to start production in 2026. The total resources of the iron ore are about 514 million tons, with an average iron grade of 33.05% and a magnetite iron grade of 28.58% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel Products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,340, 3,360 and 3,427 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20 and 19 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,510, 3,460 and 3,522 respectively, with price changes of 30, 20 and 22 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,120 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 with a change of 20, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 with a change of 10 [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 788 with a change of 11, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 783 with a change of 10. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.58 and 24.95 respectively, with changes of 0.21 and 0.59 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.60 with a change of 0.90, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 102.90 with a change of 1.40 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,258 | 0.96 | 3,269 | 3,235 | 1,141,600 | - 269,639 | 1,605,388 | - 7,237 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,484 | 1.40 | 3,495 | 3,454 | 488,547 | - 78,139 | 1,381,560 | 6,551 | | Iron Ore | - | 801.0 | 2.36 | 803.0 | 787.5 | 281,002 | 109,995 | 443,799 | 171,910 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report presents the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [16][18][21]. - Steel Mill Production Situation: The report shows the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand pattern continued to weaken, the inventory growth rate expanded. Although the output of hot - rolled coils decreased due to the maintenance of plate mills, the sustainability of production reduction was questionable, and the positive effect of supply contraction was not strong. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, and the weak demand put pressure on the price. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand increased. The production of rebar reached a high level this year, and demand improved, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, but cost support existed. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand pattern changed little. The consumption of steel mills decreased, but the profit situation was good, and the overall decline was not large. The supply of iron ore increased limitedly. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].