油脂：供应担忧增加，油脂全线收涨

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - International: The good rate of US soybeans meets expectations, but hot weather is coming. The US and China extended the policy of waiving the 24% tariff for 90 days, causing the CBOT soybean price to give back some previous gains. The MPOB monthly report shows that the inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July was less than expected, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 was strong. Indonesia reaffirmed the implementation of the B50 plan in 2026, leading to the continuous rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [4]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory continued to rise, with increased exports and the continuation of Sino - US trade risk premium supporting the soybean oil price. Palm oil inventory increased slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly followed the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory remained stable last week but the downward trend persisted. The Ministry of Commerce determined that Canadian rapeseed was dumped and took temporary anti - dumping measures, causing the far - month rapeseed oil to break through the previous trading range, and policy risks need to be watched in the future [4]. 3) Summary according to relevant catalogs Macro and Industry News - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the US, suspending the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days and retaining the 10% rate from August 12, 2025, 12:01 [2]. - As of August 8, soybean oil inventory was 1.15 million tons, up 20,000 tons week - on - week and 40,000 tons year - on - year; rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, basically flat week - on - week and up 170,000 tons year - on - year; palm oil inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons week - on - week and down 20,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the good rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, down from 69% the previous week and the same as the same period last year [2]. - The US Midwest will return to hot weather in the coming week, and most parts of the country are expected to have precipitation, mainly concentrated in the southeast [2]. - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce issued preliminary rulings on two cases, deciding to implement temporary anti - dumping measures. The dumping margin of Canadian companies in the rapeseed case was 75.8%, and that in the halogenated butyl rubber case was 26.2% - 40.5% [3]. Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On August 12, DCE soybean oil futures rose 0.43%, DCE palm oil futures rose 1.56%, and CZCE rapeseed oil futures rose 2.23%. On August 11, CBOT soybean futures rose 2.41%, CBOT soybean oil futures rose 1.11%, and MDE palm oil futures rose 3.03% [1]. - Spot: On August 12, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang rose 0.58%, palm oil in Zhangjiagang rose 2.49%, and rapeseed oil in Nantong rose 1.76% [1]. - Basis: On August 12, the soybean oil basis rose 14 yuan/ton, the palm oil basis rose 86 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil basis decreased 44 yuan/ton [1]. - Registered Contracts: On August 12, the number of registered contracts for DCE soybean oil, DCE palm oil, and CZCE rapeseed oil remained unchanged [1]. - Pressing Profit: On August 12, the pressing profit of imported soybeans increased 5.7 yuan/ton, that of imported rapeseed remained unchanged, and that of imported palm oil increased 58.6 yuan/ton [1].