黑色产业数据每日监测-20250812

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market is bullish today, with supply-side bullish factors disturbing market sentiment, and the coking coal supply-demand expectation still supporting prices. However, to break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures are generally bullish. The closing price of rebar is 3,250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the main contract of hot-rolled coil closes at 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the main contract of iron ore closes at 796.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke rise today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - Coking Coal: The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow. Production verification in Shanxi coal mines is advancing, controlling the production of over - producing coal mines in the first half of the year. Some coal mines in Shanxi have issued a 276 - working - day production plan. The expected phased production capacity release is limited. Last week, coal mine output decreased slightly, and the clean coal inventory dropped by 26,000 tons to 2.457 million tons, the lowest since March 2024. The port inventory of imported coking coal decreased significantly by 300,000 tons to 4.6305 million tons, while the daily customs - cleared vehicle number at the Mengmen 288 port has recovered to over 1,300. The blast furnace hot metal output remains above 2.4 million tons, and the sixth round of coke price increase is about to be implemented. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high - level operations. Some offline coal mines have saturated pre - sale orders, supporting coal prices in the short term. However, the speculative demand in the market has cooled down, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced coal is low, and the overall online auction failure rate of coking coal has increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - Coke: Last Friday, mainstream coking enterprises proposed a sixth - round price increase for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 11. Mainstream steel mills postponed the implementation, and the specific implementation time is to be determined. Last week, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide increased by 29 yuan to 16 yuan/ton, the coking enterprise's loss slightly shrank, and the capacity utilization rate slightly rose to 74.03%. The blast furnace hot metal output of steel mills remains above 2.4 million tons, and speculative demand increases with the price rise. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 5.28% to 697,300 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills decreased by 1.18% to 6.1928 million tons. The port coke inventory slightly increased, and the total inventory reached a 7 - month low, but the year - on - year increase expanded to 16.62%. In general, under the background of steel mill production restrictions in the mainstream regions in the second half of the month, coke prices are supported by raw coal costs but also have a certain callback risk, and there is still room for game between coking and steel enterprises [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron Ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a short - term oscillatory approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Pay attention to the oscillatory market after the price stabilizes from a decline or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]. Summary - Overall, supply - side bullish factors disturb market sentiment, and the coking coal supply - demand expectation still supports prices. The futures market has already priced in part of the supply contraction expectation, and continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is needed to break through the previous high [1].