Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the yield central tendency in the bond market is difficult to reverse in the long - term due to economic pressure, but it may first decline and then rise in the short - term [4][29] - The macro - environment is still favorable for the bond market, with the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain liquidity [24][29] - The resumption of VAT collection on the interest income of government bonds and other bonds has multiple meanings and will affect the bond market [6] Summary by Directory Hot - Spot Review - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. The VAT rate for banks, insurance, and securities self - operating departments will change from 0 to 6%, and for public funds and other asset management products, from 0 to 3% [6] - The resumption has three meanings: releasing incremental fiscal space to ease fiscal pressure (estimated to increase annual fiscal revenue by 200 - 410 billion yuan), optimizing the bond market tax policy and strengthening the benchmark function of national bond yields, and optimizing resource allocation by guiding funds to other fields and narrowing the spreads between old and new bonds and credit spreads [6][7][9] July Interest Rate Operation Review Funds and Liquidity Monitoring - In July, the central bank's open - market operations were relatively loose, with a net capital injection of 488 billion yuan, but a decrease of 365.9 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations at times of tight liquidity [11] - The central tendency of capital interest rates declined. The DR007 central tendency was 1.516%, a 6.17 - BP decline from the previous month, and the R007 central tendency was 1.5296%, a 10.35 - BP decline. The DR007 - R007 spread was at a historically low level, indicating looser non - bank liquidity [12][14] Interest - Bearing Bond Yield Review - The 10 - year national bond yield central tendency increased. At the end of the month, it reached 1.7044%, a 5.75 - BP increase from the previous month's end, and the central tendency increased by 2.66 BP to 1.68%. The term spread widened by 1.7 BP to 32.37 BP [16] - In July, the trading volume of interest - bearing bonds increased by 5.25 trillion yuan to 28.18 trillion yuan. The trading volume of national bonds increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, local bonds decreased by 195.833 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds increased by 4.06 trillion yuan [16] Follow - up Outlook Macro - environment - The central tendency of national bond yields may continue to decline, but short - term incremental policies may drive yields up. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Consumption and investment in June showed marginal cooling [22] - The central government will accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds, and the NDRC will promote the establishment of new policy - based financial instruments, which may improve macro - data but have a negative impact on the bond market [22] Monetary Policy - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. There is a need for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts due to high real interest rates. The Fed may cut interest rates in the third quarter, providing space for China's monetary policy easing. The central tendency of yields may decline further this year [24] - In the short - term, the central bank will maintain liquidity by increasing open - market operations despite the accelerated issuance of government bonds [24] Bond Market Strategy - The short - term adjustment of the interest - income tax rate on national bonds may lead to a rush to buy old bonds, driving yields down, and then the yield central tendency may rise due to the tax premium [28] - The stock market's anti - involution trend and the NDRC's new policies may increase market risk appetite and have a negative impact on bond yields [29] - Enterprises planning to issue bonds can consider starting in late Q3 to reduce financing costs [29]
7月利率运行分析与展望:恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意义
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji·2025-08-12 11:12