黑色金属日报-20250812

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the given star description [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend due to positive market sentiment and strong furnace material prices, despite weak domestic demand [2] - The iron ore market is likely to oscillate at a high level as its fundamental contradictions are limited, with improved market sentiment and short - term reduced uncertainty [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have their prices affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility and relatively limited downward space [4][6] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets' prices are influenced by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: Surface demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil: Surface demand significantly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined moderately but remained high. Market negative feedback pressure is low. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased slightly month - on - month but were stronger year - on - year. Domestic arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories stabilized and increased. Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills have high profit ratios and limited motivation to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - Due to approaching major events, there are expectations of production restrictions in East China coking plants. The sixth round of price increases is proposed. Profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The market has high expectations for coal over - production inspections. Mine production decreased, and the spot auction market improved. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron water production remained high. Weekly production increased, but the rate was lower than expected. Manganese ore prices increased slightly. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. Prices are affected by policy expectations [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons. Supply increased significantly, and inventory increased slightly. Prices follow the silicon manganese trend and are affected by policy expectations [8]