低位有支撑，短期延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that ethylene glycol will maintain a volatile trend, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Logic - This week, ethylene glycol continued its callback and consolidation, mainly due to the dissipation of the macro - atmosphere and the continuous decline of crude oil. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol did not change significantly, and the "anti - involution" sentiment reached a low point, resulting in a decrease in commodity trading volume. The ethylene glycol futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, and the spot price followed the futures to remain weak [6] - Next week, on the cost side, the market's concern about the interruption of Russia's oil supply will decrease, and the crude oil price is expected to continue to be under pressure and run weakly. On the supply side, there will be a certain reduction in overall supply. Domestic coal - based plants are in the process of restarting, while overseas plants in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia have had temporary shutdowns with uncertain restart times. On the demand side, there is no clear plan for polyester plant maintenance, and a 300,000 - ton polyester filament plant is planned to restart. The theoretical production losses of most polyester products have narrowed, with polyester filament POY showing a slight profit, so it is estimated that polyester factories will not conduct maintenance for the time being. In terms of port inventory, the impact of weather has weakened, ports are gradually resuming operations, and the expected arrival volume at ports is high in the future. Coupled with the low willingness of downstream polyester factories to pick up goods, it is expected that port inventory may continue to increase slightly next week [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Situation Futures Market - The trading volume this week was 521,300 lots, and the open interest was 205,300 lots (- 34,000 lots) [11] - The closing price of the MEG main contract on August 11 was 4414 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from August 4, with an overall change of 0.57%. The settlement price on August 11 was 4404 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from August 4, with an overall change of 0.66% [13] Spot Market - Domestic spot: The high - end transaction price was 4515 (8.7), and the low - end was 4440 (7.4). In the week from August 3 - 9, the price in Fujian was 4397 yuan/ton (- 27), in Zhangjiagang was 4471 yuan/ton (- 31.5), and in Dongguan was 4397 yuan/ton (- 57). The foreign - market price was 521.8 US dollars/ton (- 1.8). The average basis this week was 78 yuan/ton, compared with 73.40 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol remained inverted, with an overall level of 100 - 120 US dollars/ton [15] 3.3 MEG Plant, Inventory, and Production Profit Situation Plant Operation - The restart of coal - chemical plants is progressing well, while the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's Phase II 1 plant has been moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, resulting in a certain reduction in supply. From August 5 - 11, the comprehensive operating rate was 62.81%; from July 29 - August 4, it was 63.01% [19] - The operating rate of oil - based production was 66.15%, coal - based was 57.77%, and methanol - based was 62.43% [22] - There were various changes in plant operations during the week, including the shutdown and maintenance of the Wonen plant, the short - term shutdown and restart of the Guoneng Yulin plant, and minor adjustments in the loads of many other plants. The Guanghui plant was in the process of restarting but had not yet produced output [24] Production Profit - As the price of thermal coal continued to rise slightly and the ethylene glycol spot price showed a weak trend this week, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol continued to be slightly compressed [32] - The profit of MTO was - 1535.88 yuan/ton (previous period: - 1561.35 yuan/ton), coal - based was 550.44 yuan/ton (previous period: 625.67 yuan/ton), and ethylene - based was - 111.10 US dollars/ton (previous period: - 107.85 US dollars/ton) [34] Inventory - The rebound in port inventory lacks sustainability, and the arrival volume of foreign vessels will decrease around the middle of the month [36] - As of August 8, the MEG port inventory was 417,200 tons, an increase of 27,200 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 14.21%. Among them, Zhangjiagang had 138,500 tons (an increase of 1000 tons), Jiangyin had 60,000 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons), Taicang had 108,000 tons (a decrease of 2000 tons), Ningbo had 70,000 tons (a decrease of 2000 tons), and Shanghai and Changshu had 40,700 tons (an increase of 20,200 tons) [38] - From July 31 - August 6, the average daily shipment volume at Zhangjiagang main port was around 4210 tons, at two major storage areas in the Taicang direction was around 4570 tons, and at the Ningbo direction was around 2500 tons. In addition, the inventory in the mainstream domestic trade transfer tanks was around 7000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous period [41] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis Market Sentiment and Cost - OPEC+ production increases, escalating trade disputes, weak US crude oil exports, and energy sanctions against Russia have all intensified the pessimistic sentiment in the energy market [45] Polyester Industry - To implement the government's "anti - involution" call, the first - round production cut of polyester filament in August has been implemented [47] - The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.68%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6745 yuan/ton, 7955 yuan/ton, and 7020 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.3%, 0.38%, and 0.21% from the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market this period was 6494 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 1.46%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5880 - 6000 yuan/ton, and the average price this week was 5942.00 yuan/ton, down 1.69% from the previous period [50] - For polyester staple fiber, the supply has increased as the previously shut - down major factories have resumed production, and the demand has remained at a rigid level. For polyester bottle chips, the supply has been stable with a low operating rate, and the demand has shown marginal improvement [52] - The production and sales ratio of polyester products continued to decline month - on - month. The industrial chain has recently declined, and the downstream raw material inventory is in the digestion stage. From August 4 - 8, the average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 60%. It is expected that the production and sales of long - filament products will significantly rebound next week due to the upcoming downstream replenishment cycle and the expected increase in seasonal demand [57][60] - As of August 7, the inventory of long - filament products continued to increase. The average inventory days of POY were 19.70 days, FDY were 25.70 days, and DTY were 30.00 days. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber were 7.78 days (a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous period), and the inventory days of polyester chips were 9.21 days (an increase of 0.61 days from the previous period) [63][65]