Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, driven by better-than-expected domestic automobile production and sales data and year-on-year growth in heavy truck sales [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend, supported by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, despite the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend, as China and the United States have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons (1.89%) from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The entry rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the exit rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The entry rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the exit rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decline of 9.39 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.76 percentage points [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.35%, a slight week - on - week decline of 1.57%, a slight month - on - month decline of 4.85%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant week - on - week decline of 84,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decline of 141,800 tons, and a significant increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.66%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The MTBE operating rate was 53.91%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.93% [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.98 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.69 percentage points. As of August 8, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 18 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month decline of 25 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 803,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 153,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 235,700 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 26,300 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 293,800 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a slight week - on - week decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.006 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 453,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 235,000 barrels [12]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.9%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [12]. - As of August 5, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 141,829 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 14,194 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,341 contracts (a decline of 22.57%) compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 5, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 230,414 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 19,559 contracts and a significant increase of 10,338 contracts (an increase of 4.70%) compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,860 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | - 1,110 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,412 yuan/ton | +2 yuan/ton | 2,496 yuan/ton | +11 yuan/ton | - 84 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 460.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 494.2 yuan/barrel | +4.8 yuan/barrel | - 33.6 yuan/barrel | - 4.7 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes [14][27][40]
橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围支撑，能化集体走强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-12 11:39