大阅兵催化限产政策落地，行业供给侧变化或将临近

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The upcoming military parade is expected to catalyze the implementation of production restrictions, leading to significant changes in the supply side of the industry [8] - Short-term production cuts in Tangshan may impact at least 1.4% of Hebei's steel output, potentially driving up steel prices and profit margins [8] - The steel industry is anticipated to return to a state of supply-demand balance, paving the way for high-quality development due to both short-term production cuts and mid-term capacity clearance [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the military parade will lead to stringent production restrictions, similar to those seen in previous years [8] - Historical data indicates that production cuts during past parades significantly affected steel output and prices [8] Production Impact - The production cut in Tangshan is projected to affect approximately 463 million tons of steel output during the specified period [8] - The average monthly steel output in Hebei from 2015 to 2024 is noted to be around 24.62 million tons [8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the steel industry is on the verge of significant supply-side changes, which could stabilize profit margins and lead to a more favorable operating environment [8] - Long-term prospects include a focus on companies with stable dividend levels, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [8]