菜系：商务部初裁加菜籽倾销，多头行情起势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the domestic vegetable oilseed complex (菜系), recommending a long - position trading strategy [15]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has effectively blocked Canadian rapeseed from the Chinese market. While the final ruling may change, significant improvement in China - Canada economic and trade negotiations is needed for Canadian rapeseed to re - enter the Chinese market. This is positive news for domestic vegetable oilseed futures prices, with an expected short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak external markets [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Anti - Dumping Investigation and Preliminary Ruling - On September 9, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce launched an anti - dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed. On August 12, 2025, it was preliminarily determined that Canadian rapeseed was being dumped, causing material damage to the domestic rapeseed industry, and there was a causal relationship between the two [2]. - Starting from August 14, 2025, importers are required to provide a 75.8% deposit to Chinese customs when importing Canadian rapeseed [4][9]. Policy Interpretation - The deposit is a temporary anti - dumping measure. The temporary anti - dumping measure period is generally no more than 4 months and can be extended to 9 months in special cases. The final anti - dumping tax will be determined by the State Council Tariff Commission based on the final investigation results [7][14]. - The final ruling is expected to be announced by March 9, 2026 at the latest. If the final ruling confirms dumping, there will be a "more refund, less no - supplement" policy. If the final ruling does not levy an anti - dumping tax, the deposit will be refunded [10][11][13]. Impact on the Market - The anti - dumping preliminary ruling has blocked Canadian rapeseed from the Chinese market. The final ruling may change, but significant improvement in China - Canada economic and trade negotiations is needed for Canadian rapeseed to re - enter the Chinese market. This news is positive for domestic vegetable oilseed futures prices, and it is expected that rapeseed trade will shrink after the decline in rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil trade between China and Canada [15].