科技行业月报：关税影响低于预期，部分科技股处于高位-20250812

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Leading," indicating that the covered industry is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 12 months [3]. Core Insights - The MSCI Information Technology Index increased by 4.2% from July 12 to August 11, outperforming the MSCI Global Index, which rose by 1.7% [1]. - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$323.2 billion in July, a year-on-year increase of 26%, indicating strong demand for advanced processes [3]. - The semiconductor equipment import value in June grew by 19% year-on-year, reflecting sustained high levels of investment in domestic semiconductor manufacturing [3]. - The U.S. semiconductor tariff policy announced on August 6 is expected to have a smaller impact than previously anticipated, particularly for companies like TSMC that are investing heavily in U.S. manufacturing [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The MSCI Global Index and the CSI 300 Index have recorded three consecutive months of growth, although the rate of increase has slowed [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded with a 4.0% increase this month, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 3.2% [1]. Company-Specific Insights - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to strong demand for its 2nm technology, with expectations for continued growth in AI-related revenues [3]. - The average spot price for DDR5 (16GB) has stabilized since July, while contract prices for DDR4 (8GB) and NAND Flash (128GB) continue to rise [3]. Market Trends - The report anticipates that storage prices will remain strong in the second half of 2025, supported by ongoing demand [3]. - The report suggests that the tariff policy may accelerate domestic substitution and lead to some redundancy in the global semiconductor supply chain, benefiting upstream equipment suppliers [3].