豆粕生猪：库存连续下降，连粕震荡反弹

Group 1: Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main contract 2601 rose 0.62% to 3091 yuan/ton, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2] - DCE live hog's main contract 2509 fell 5 yuan/ton to 13965 yuan/ton, with the national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live hogs dropping 0.02 yuan/kg to 13.65 yuan/kg [2] - Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract rose 2.41% to 1010 cents/bushel [2] Group 2: Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. Temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was near to above normal [3][4] - 6 - 10 day outlook: there will be sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, and temperature will be near to above normal [4] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On August 8, national major oil mills' imported soybean inventory was 765 million tons, up 46 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 100 million tons, down 4 million tons week - on - week [5] - On August 12, US soybean import cost reached 4555 yuan, up 86 yuan; Brazilian soybean import cost was 4039 yuan, up 103 yuan; Argentine soybean import cost was 3777 yuan, up 75 yuan [5] - On August 11, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume increased to 54000 tons, and the average trading price rose to 3021.79 yuan/ton [5] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 277.45 million tons of soybeans in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 26.51% year - on - year [6] - US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 68%, flowering rate was 91%, and pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, US soybean crushing profit was 3.09 dollars/bushel, up 3.0% week - on - week [6] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 68.49 million tons of soybean meal in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 17.75% year - on - year [6] - As of the week ending August 7, 2025, US soybean export inspection volume was 518066 tons [7] - From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff measure will be suspended for 90 days [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 85.9% [7] Group 4: Analysis and Strategy Soybean Meal - US soybean futures rebounded, boosted by the US president's call and the suspension of the 24% tariff. However, the expectation of a US soybean bumper crop restricts the price rebound space [15][16] - Domestic continuous soybean meal M01 dropped sharply. The basis price rebounded, and the trade flow between regions supported the spot price. Future US soybean imports remain uncertain [17] Live Hogs - On the supply side, farmers are increasing supply by reducing the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, demand is recovering slightly but still limited by high temperatures [19] - It is expected that the near - month contracts will be relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19]