氯碱日报：供需驱动不足，PVC走势承压-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure of PVC is large, with production expected to rise due to restart of previous maintenance and new capacity. Demand is weak, with low downstream product start - up and reduced export orders. Social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and cost - side support is weak. For烧碱, the upstream supply is high, and there is short - term rigid demand support from the alumina industry. The profit of chlor - alkali has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of PVC futures main contract is 5010 yuan/ton (+17), the East China basis is - 150 yuan/ton (- 17), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 37). The East China calcium carbide method spot price is 4860 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method spot price is 4900 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - Upstream Production Profits: The price of semi - coke is 595 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 14 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 252 yuan/ton (- 231), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 489 yuan/ton (- 10), and the PVC export profit is 8.8 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1]. - Inventory and Start - up: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 33.7 tons (- 0.8), the social inventory of PVC is 48.1 tons (+3.3), the calcium carbide method start - up rate of PVC is 77.83% (+3.41%), the ethylene method start - up rate of PVC is 77.55% (+7.31%), and the overall start - up rate of PVC is 77.75% (+4.49%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (- 2.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of SH futures main contract is 2492 yuan/ton (+46), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 8 yuan/ton (- 46). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - Upstream Production Profits: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 645.8 yuan/ton (- 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 483.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1618.15 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [2]. - Inventory and Start - up: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 85.10% (+1.20%). The start - up rate of alumina is 85.73% (+0.15%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 84.97% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The overall start - up has increased significantly month - on - month due to the return of previous maintenance and production resumption, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, so the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still large [3]. - Demand: The start - up of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders have decreased month - on - month, and the export performance is still affected by India's PVC import policy and the rainy season [3]. - Inventory and Cost: PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is relatively high. The calcium carbide price is weak, and the ethylene price is mainly stable, so the cost - side support of PVC is still weak [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream start - up has increased month - on - month to a high level in the same period, and enterprises have little willingness to reduce production due to profit support. Although the start - up in Shandong is also at a high level, some local enterprises have reduced their device loads, and Yantai Wanhua plans to carry out maintenance, so the start - up may decline slightly in the later period [3]. - Demand: The profit of alumina is good, the start - up continues to rise, and the delivery volume of the main downstream has increased month - on - month, with short - term rigid demand support. The start - up of non - aluminum sectors has not changed much and remains weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream products during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - Cost and Profit: The price of liquid chlorine continues to be weak, the cost support of caustic soda is strong, and the chlor - alkali profit has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Cautiously short - sell for hedging. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of V09 - 01. - Inter - variety: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None [4].