FICC日报：关注中国7月金融数据和美国7月CPI数据-20250812

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals in July remained resilient. The Politburo meeting on July 30 set the tone for the second - half economic work, emphasizing continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - The July economic data globally showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, better than expected. The CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline in PPI narrowed [2]. - In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. The "Great Beauty" Act may support subsequent consumption. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" and the subsequent demand situation [2]. - For commodities, domestic supply - side is most sensitive in the black and new - energy metal sectors. Energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector persists. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to go long on industrial products at low prices [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Global economic data in July was resilient. China's manufacturing PMI declined, but exports were strong. The US had mixed economic data. The "reciprocal tariff" policy may affect external - demand - sensitive commodities. After the July interest - rate meeting, there was uncertainty about the Fed's September interest - rate decision [2]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors have different situations. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation. The energy supply is expected to be loose with OPEC+ increasing production. The "anti - involution" space in some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations [3]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy industrial products at low prices [4]. Market Performance - On August 11, the A - share market rose, with most stocks up and a trading volume of about 1.85 trillion. Some commodities like industrial silicon and红枣 rose, while others like eggs and container shipping to Europe declined. Bond yields increased, and spot gold dropped by over 1.4% [5]. Important News - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest - rate cuts this year and will host a community bank meeting on October 9. US President Trump will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine crisis, and the White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky [5].