沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The increase in import tariffs may push up inflation at the US consumer end and suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the decline in the operating capacity of downstream processing has led to a week - on - week decrease in the domestic weekly social inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 11, 2025, the closing price was 79020, up 530 from the previous day. The trading volume was 70041 lots, an increase of 27135 lots; the open interest was 160884 lots, an increase of 3992 lots; the inventory was 23275 tons, an increase of 2003 tons. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79150, up 620, and the Shanghai copper basis was 130, up 90 [2]. - Spot Premium and Discount: In Guangzhou, the spot discount of electrolytic copper was - 20, up 20; in North China, it remained at - 120; in East China, it was 25, up 30. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 0, up 30; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 30, down 50 [2]. - London Copper: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9726.5, down 41.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease of 155700. The spread of LME copper futures for 0 - 3 months was - 83.25, down 13.7; the spread for 3 - 15 months was - 148.59, down 7.1 [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.4445, up 0.03, and the total inventory was 265196, an increase of 1900 [2]. Industry News - Production Adjustments: Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025. Norilsk Nickel reduced its 2025 copper production forecast from 35.3 - 37.3 million tons to 34.3 - 35.5 million tons. Anglo Asian Mining's Denir11 copper mine started trial production, with an expected production of 4000 tons in 2025 and 15000 tons from 2026 onwards [2]. - Accidents and Disruptions: The non - production underground passage of Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine collapsed and suspended operations. A gun - smoke poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe copper mine of Wulong Industry in Shanxi, resulting in three deaths. Hudbay Minerals suspended the operation and exploration of the Show Lake due to wildfires in northern Manitoba, Canada [2]. - Production Resumptions and Expansions: The west side of Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine resumed production in early June, but the east - side drainage may last until September, reducing the 2025 planned production from 52 - 58 million tons to 37 - 42 million tons. The second - phase 16 - million - ton capacity of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador of Tongling Nonferrous Metals may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200000 - ton - per - day expansion project of the Julong copper mine may be completed by the end of 2025 [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support level of 77000 - 78000 and the pressure level of 80000 - 81000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9300 - 9500 and the pressure level of 10000 - 10200 for London copper, and the support level of 4.0 - 4.2 and the pressure level of 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].