燃料油日报：关注美国对俄制裁的预期变化-20250812

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways with a downward bias [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways with a downward bias [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.39% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.92% at 3,463 yuan/ton [1] - After the correction, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillatory trend recently. The FU and LU futures prices have declined following the cost side, and the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet in the oil market potentially suppresses the energy sector [1] - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, spot supply remains abundant, while demand lacks growth momentum. Although power generation demand is boosted by the peak season, it lacks drivers beyond seasonality [1] - In the long term, given the trends of lighter crude oil and refinery upgrades, structural support remains. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure may strengthen again. However, in the short term, the previously accumulated inventory still needs to be digested [1] - Attention should be paid to the progress of the meeting between Russian and US leaders this week. If the negotiation is successful and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia, there is room for an increase in fuel oil supply, and the fundamentals may further loosen [1] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Currently, domestic production remains low, and bonded area supply is relatively tight. However, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to recover [2] - From a medium-term perspective, as the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, supply will be released once crack spreads are appropriate. Moreover, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is still significant resistance above the market [2] Group 3: Graphical Information - The report includes multiple graphs showing various fuel oil prices, spreads, and trading volumes, such as Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, and fuel oil futures prices and trading volumes [4]