国债期货日报：股债跷跷板明显，国债期货全线收跌-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral trading, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract. In the arbitrage trading, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of TF2509. In the hedging trading, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [8]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: The social financing scale is 408.34 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.74 trillion yuan (0.68%); M2 year - on - year growth is 7.30%, with a 0.20% (2.82%) month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a - 0.20% (- 0.40%) month - on - month change [8]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 109.41, with a 0.47 (0.43%) day - on - day change; the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.324, with a - 0.019 (- 0.25%) day - on - day change; SHIBOR 7 - day is 2.01, with a - 0.03 (- 1.28%) day - on - day change; DR007 is 2.12, with a - 0.21 (- 9.18%) day - on - day change; R007 is 1.94, with a 0.12 (6.52%) day - on - day change; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3M is 1.89, with a 0.00 (0.09%) day - on - day change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.15, with a - 0.01 (0.09%) day - on - day change [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position - holding ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance situation of treasury bonds [11][12][15]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - Charts show the trend of Shibor interest rates, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [24][25]. 3.4 Spread Overview - Multiple charts present the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4TS - T, 2TS - TF, 2TF - T, 3T - TL), and the spread between spot bond spreads and futures spreads (2TS - 3TF + T) [28][35][36]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [38][41][51]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [47][48][53]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [56][59]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [64][66][70].